COMBINE — Combine has grown beyond the population outlook described in its 2019 comprehensive plan, but newer records offer a mixed picture: federal estimates suggest a substantial increase in residents, while regional housing estimates and recent building permits show a more measured pace.
The distinction matters for residents trying to understand whether growth is accelerating, and what that could mean for roads, public safety and the city’s rural character.
The comprehensive plan used an estimated 2014 population of 2,053 and described annual growth of less than 1%. It suggested the city could gain another 70 residents by the next census.
Adding those figures implies approximately 2,123 residents, although the document presented a general expectation rather than a detailed annual forecast.
The 2020 Census counted 2,245 residents—122 more, or about 5.7% above that implied expectation. Combine had already surpassed the plan’s near-term outlook by census day.
The Census Bureau’s newer Population Estimates Program places Combine at 2,769 residents on July 1, 2025. Its latest series estimates 2,333 residents in 2021, 2,454 in 2022, 2,585 in 2023 and 2,692 in 2024.
Within that consistent series, estimated annual growth slowed from approximately 5.3% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Those rates remain above the old plan’s description, but they suggest moderation rather than continuing acceleration.
The federal series also uses a revised April 2020 estimates base of 2,216. Against that baseline, the estimated increase through July 2025 is 553 residents, or approximately 25%.
Comparing the 2025 estimate directly with the original census count produces a different figure, 23.3%, because the starting populations differ.
Another public agency estimates a considerably smaller population.
The North Central Texas Council of Governments places Combine at 2,418 residents on January 1, 2026, up from 2,406 a year earlier. That represents an estimated gain of 12 residents, or 0.5%, during 2025.
Its January 2026 estimate is about 7.7% above the original 2020 Census count.
Those figures should not be combined with the federal estimates to suggest Combine lost residents between July 2025 and January 2026. They come from different estimation systems and reference dates.
NCTCOG specifically cautions that its figures and Census estimates are not directly comparable.
Housing records provide another way to assess the pace.
Census Bureau Building Permits Survey files report the following new single-family housing units authorized in Combine:
| Year | Housing units authorized |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 |
| 2021 | 10 |
| 2022 | 14 |
| 2023 | 8 |
| 2024 | 9 |
| 2025 | 4 |
| Total | 55 |
The records show ongoing construction activity, but no sustained annual increase. Authorizations peaked at 14 units in 2022 before falling to four in 2025.
Permits, however, do not establish how many homes were completed or occupied.
NCTCOG’s housing inventory estimates offer a closer measure of housing actually added.
Its published city data show Combine’s total housing stock increasing from 794 units in April 2020 to 857 in January 2026, a net gain of 63 units, or about 7.9%.
Within that inventory, estimated single-family units increased from 589 to 636, while units classified as “other” increased from 205 to 221.
That net gain cannot be reported as 63 newly completed homes. NCTCOG updates its inventory using completions, annexations and units moved into a city, then subtracts demolitions and units moved out.
A separate, verified citywide total of completed homes was not established from the public records reviewed.
Small-city population figures also require care. Federal estimates distribute county household populations among local jurisdictions using housing estimates and census-based ratios.
NCTCOG relies heavily on locally supplied housing information, occupancy rates and household sizes. Neither process is a fresh door-to-door count.
The evidence supports a qualified answer: Combine has exceeded the old plan’s population expectation, and its housing inventory has expanded.
But the size of the population increase remains uncertain, and declining permit totals do not support describing recent construction as an accelerating boom.
For city planning, the unresolved issue is how closely estimated population growth matches completed, occupied housing—and whether that growth is changing demand for public services.
