Mass Deportation Agenda Is Deepening the Affordability Crisis, Economists Warn

The cost of groceries, home care and housing remains a top concern for many families. Economists now say the mass deportation agenda is adding to that pressure. Labor shortages in industries that rely on immigrant workers are showing up in prices.

Administration officials say deportations will open jobs for American workers. Research released this year suggests the opposite. It links heightened Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity to job losses for immigrants and for workers born in the U.S.

Prices Rising Faster Where Immigrant Labor Is Common

A July 2026 paper from Economic Insights and Research Consulting examined Consumer Price Index data for the 12 months ending June 2026. The ACLU and the AFL-CIO cited it in a new report on deportations and affordability. Core inflation rose 2.6% over that span.

Prices in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor climbed much faster. Lettuce rose 32.1% and landscaping services rose 10.8%. Home health care rose 10.7% and milk rose 9%.

The report argues that employers pass higher labor costs on to consumers. The ACLU and the AFL-CIO are advocacy groups. The link between enforcement and prices reflects their reading of the data.

Housing Costs and the Construction Squeeze

The nation already faces a housing shortage estimated at 3.7 million units. The Urban Institute says a lack of construction workers is slowing projects and driving up labor costs. It lists Texas and California as the states at highest risk of construction labor shortages.

National construction costs rose 2.8% in January 2026 compared with a year earlier. Economists writing for Urban Land Magazine said labor remains the main source of upward pressure. They also said aggressive deportations will hit construction harder than most industries.

The ACLU cites economists who estimate the agenda could eliminate nearly 20% of the construction workforce. That would mean about 1.4 million jobs. About 860,000 of them are held by workers born in the U.S.

The ACLU also points to research on the first Trump term and the Secure Communities program. It says that research found about 2,000 fewer homes completed per state each year. It also reports an 18% rise in new home prices.

The advocacy group America’s Voice reports that construction employment fell 1.3% in the five states most reliant on immigrant labor. The rest of the country grew 3.3%. A Houston builder in a recent homebuilder survey said ICE activity was causing labor shortages.

Grocery Bills Under Pressure

The immigration advocacy group FWD.us modeled what stricter immigration policies could mean for food costs. Its projection shows producer prices rising 14.5% for most food products and 6.1% in construction.

The average weekly grocery bill would climb from $165 in 2024 to $195 by the end of the current administration.

That figure is a modeled projection and not a measured result. It shows why economists focus on agriculture and food processing. Both industries employ large numbers of immigrant workers.

Job Losses Add to the Strain

A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research examined ICE activity from October 2023 through November 2025. Economist Chloe East and coauthor Elizabeth Cox found that employment among likely undocumented immigrants fell about 4% after an ICE surge.

The University of Colorado Boulder announced the findings in May 2026.

The study found no evidence that jobs or wages improved for workers born in the U.S. It estimates that one man born in the U.S. with a high school education or less loses a job for every six undocumented male workers who leave theirs.

In construction, recent surges reduced the employment rate for those workers by about 3%.

East says fewer workers lead companies to take on fewer projects. That means less hiring for everyone including electricians and roofers. Fewer homes built also means less supply and higher prices over time.

Separate analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy used Bureau of Labor Statistics data. It found 1,008,000 fewer workers born outside the U.S. in February 2026 than at the March 2025 peak.

The unemployment rate for workers born in the U.S. was 4.7% in February 2026 compared with 4.4% a year earlier.

The Administration’s Position

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow the labor force. She said the president’s agenda is committed to creating jobs for American workers. Her statement also defended the mandate to enforce immigration laws.

The White House has previously promoted the message that mass deportations mean more jobs. Economists have repeatedly disputed that claim.

Limits of the Evidence

The jobs study is a working paper and focuses on male workers. The researchers describe their results as associations. The survey data does not show why people left work.

Several price and housing figures come from advocacy groups or from models. Some contractors also say enforcement levels the playing field. They say it stops unlicensed companies from undercutting their bids.

What Comes Next

Price and labor data will be watched closely ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Analysts say immigration may become an affordability issue for voters. The debate now centers on whether enforcement creates jobs or raises costs.